Distribution of sugar-sweetened beverage sales volume by sugar content in the United States: implications for tiered taxation and tax revenue

Abstract

This study draws on data on sales volume, brand-level market shares, and sugar content to calculate the distribution of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) sales volume by sugar content, propose sugar content thresholds for a tiered tax structure, and estimate tax revenue. The most common SSBs sold had 26 g of sugar/8-oz serving; 70.8% had ≥ 25 g of sugar/8-oz serving, 16.9% were in the 10–15 g range, and 8.7% were in the 16–20 g range. A tiered tax with cut points at < 20 g and < 5 g of sugar/8-oz serving is proposed. A tax of 1¢/oz for SSBs in the second tier and 2¢/oz in third tier is projected to raise $18.2 billion in tax revenue similar to the 1.5¢/oz flat tax projection ($18.0 billion) but would yield 9% lower SSB volume. Understanding the distribution of SSB sales volume by sugar content informs policymakers on tiered tax structures, which may discourage consumption of SSBs with high levels of sugar and incentivize reformulation.