A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009-11

Abstract

Prolonged cold spells were experienced in Ireland in the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11, and electricity demand was relatively high at these times, whilst wind generation capacity factors were low. Such situations can cause difficulties for an electricity system with a high dependence on wind energy. Studying the atmospheric conditions associated with these two winters offers insights into the large-scale drivers for cold, calm spells, and helps to evaluate if they are rare events over the long-term. The influence of particular atmospheric patterns on coincidental winter wind generation and weather-related electricity demand is investigated here, with a focus on blocking in the North Atlantic/European sector. The occurrences of such patterns in the 2009-10 and 2010-11 winters are examined, and 2010-11 in particular was found to be unusual in a long-term context. The results are discussed in terms of the relevance to long-term planning and investment in the electricity system.