Designing a research-based foresight model for Iranian medical universities: addressing emerging challenges in medical education

Abstract

Introduction: Iranian medical universities are facing a range of domestic and international challenges, including technological transformations, demographic shifts, economic instability, and workforce migration. These complex conditions have heightened the need for incorporating foresight approaches into strategic planning processes. In response to this need, the present study was conducted to design a conceptual and operational foresight model tailored to the context of Iranian medical universities. The model was developed based on established foresight principles and refined through expert engagement to align with the institutional structures and practical requirements of these universities. Methods: This qualitative-exploratory study was conducted in two phases. First, through a structured review of scientific sources (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, etc.) and qualitative content analysis using MaxQDA software, foresight concepts were extracted and an initial model was developed based on Martin’s framework. In the second phase, the model was evaluated, revised, and finalized by experts through the completion of a researcher-designed questionnaire and participation in interactive expert panel sessions. During this process, the experts reviewed the model structure and contributed to the prioritization, modification, and validation of its components. Results: The proposed model comprises three main stages: pre-foresight, foresight, and post-foresight. It includes 10 sub-stages: sensitization, organizational study, preparation and design of the foresight process, environmental scanning, strategic option development, strategy formulation, dissemination of foresight results, activity management, evaluation of activity results, and dissemination of activity results. The model features 50 activities and 22 sub-activities. Conclusions: This study introduces a forward-looking, phased foresight model tailored to the institutional context of Iranian medical universities, designed to enhance systematic decision-making capacity and support effective responses to emerging challenges. Its flexible and action-oriented structure facilitates practical implementation while enabling adaptability across other higher education or health system settings. By incorporating stakeholder engagement and focusing on real-world issues, the model serves as an effective tool to strengthen organizational resilience, foster innovation, and advance sustainable development in an increasingly complex and dynamic future landscape.