The Heterogeneity of the Spatial Development of Asian Russia: What the Indicators of Interregional Inequality Are Silent About

Abstract

Abstract: The heterogeneity of the regions of Asian Russia in terms of economic activity began to increase from the early 1990s and has reached high values. Today, the economic space of Asian Russia is largely polarized, and the degree of socioeconomic inequality of the regions of Asian Russia exceeds the degree of inequality of the regions of European Russia. The goal of the study was to analyze the dynamics of the uneven interregional distribution of economic activity in Asian Russia in 2000–2019 and in the long term. The study uses the methods for analyzing distribution dynamics using the theory of Markov random processes with discrete time and continuous state space. The use of these methods has made it possible: (1) to evaluate the actual distribution of indicators of economic activity of the regions of Asian Russia at the beginning and end of the period under review and (2) to draw a conclusion about its increasing polarization; (3) to obtain an extrapolation forecast of the distribution of indicators of economic activity in the regions in the long term, that is, a forecast of long-term spatial equilibrium; and (4) to identify and characterize the groups of regions that form “convergence clubs” in the long term. The analysis has shown that the potential for further strengthening of the polarization of the economic space has not been exhausted; if current trends continue, the differences between the identified “clubs” of regions will increase. The findings must be considered when choosing measures of regional policy.