Aggregating Prophet and Seasonal Trend Decomposition for Time Series Forecasting of Italian Electricity Spot Prices

Abstract

The cost of electricity and gas has a direct influence on the everyday routines of people who rely on these resources to keep their businesses running. However, the value of electricity is strongly related to spot market prices, and the arrival of winter and increased energy use owing to the demand for heating can lead to an increase in energy prices. Approaches to forecasting energy costs have been used in recent years; however, existing models are not yet robust enough due to competition, seasonal changes, and other variables. More effective modeling and forecasting approaches are required to assist investors in planning their bidding strategies and regulators in ensuring the security and stability of energy markets. In the literature, there is considerable interest in building better pricing modeling and forecasting frameworks to meet these difficulties. In this context, this work proposes combining seasonal and trend decomposition utilizing LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and Facebook Prophet methodologies to perform a more accurate and resilient time series analysis of Italian electricity spot prices. This can assist in enhancing projections and better understanding the variables driving the data, while also including additional information such as holidays and special events. The combination of approaches improves forecast accuracy while lowering the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) performance metric by 18% compared to the baseline model.