Pavement Sections’ Reliability Based on Deterioration Model Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

Abstract

Pavement distresses, such as cracks and ruts, reduce pavements’ effectiveness and serviceability and can lead to failure. This underlines the importance of predicting pavements’ deterioration in pavement management systems (PMSs) for effective maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) strategies. Consequently, it is essential to understand the concept of service life, which represents how long a pavement will remain in service based on how reliable it is. This study introduces a pavement deterioration model using data from the Long-Term Pavement Performance program for the international roughness index (IRI) and other factors. Different machine learning methods were utilized in developing the model to incorporate eight factors that significantly affect pavement roughness; these methods are: linear regression, regression tree, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ensemble Trees, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). For comparison, the models’ performances were evaluated using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and R squared (R2). The weights and biases of the best model and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) recommended IRI ranges were utilized to create the limit state function. A reliability analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) was determined to calculate the sections’ probability of failure. This study concluded that pavement sections in the US and Canada are reliable and that the mean yearly Kilo Equivalent Single Axle Load (KESAL) significantly contributes to pavement failure.