The Role of Uncertainty Mindsets in Shaping Diversity Attitudes and Their Downstream Effects on Commitment to Societal Change and Right-Wing Populist Voting

Abstract

How people respond to uncertainty has far-reaching socio-political consequences. When perceived as fixed and threatening, individuals may gravitate toward ideologies that undermine intergroup relations and social cohesion. We examined whether fostering an uncertainty-as-enabling mindset (viewing uncertainty as malleable and an opportunity) promotes positive diversity attitudes and indirectly affects commitment to societal change and support for right-wing populism. During Germany’s 2025 federal election, we ran a 3-month online study with German citizens (N = 745). Participants who received an uncertainty mindset intervention (vs. control) reported a higher uncertainty-as-enabling mindset, which was linked to stronger commitment to societal change through higher perceived productivity of diversity and lower aversion to intergroup contact. The mindset was also linked to a lower likelihood of voting for a right-wing populist party via the same pathways. Shifting how individuals appraise uncertainty may thus be a promising strategy for strengthening democratic resilience by cultivating openness to diversity.