The Analysis of Forecasting Demand Method of Linear Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting demand for Batik Fendy using MAPE techniques. The type of this research is a quantitative descriptive study, using secondary data from the sales of the company Batik Fendy in the period November 2018 - Onkoter 2019. There are 5 stages in data analysis, namely 1) tabulating sales data and production data of Fendy batik, 2) evaluating sales forecasting methods conducted by the Batik Fendy company with the MAPE technique, 3) projecting alpha and beta values ​​as the basis for forecasting linear exponential smoothing , 4) forecasting requests for Batik Fendy with the Linear Exponential Smoothing method , and 5) evaluating the forecasting method with the MAPE technique. The results of this study are the MAPE value of demand forecasts made by the Batik Fendy company is 17.5%; This figure shows the highest percentage of error in the variant of the Sarimbit Long Sleeve Batik, then with the sales data this variant is forecasted by using the Linear Exponential Smoothing method and obtained a MAPE of 9.21%. So it can be concluded that the use of the Linear Exponential Smoothing method in predicting sales of the Sarimbit Arm Long variant Batik is more accurate.