Modelling Electric Vehicle Charge Demand: Implementation for the Greek Power System

Abstract

The emerging popularity of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) is creating new connections between the transportation and electric sectors, and PEV charging will bring new opportunities and challenges to a system of growing complexity. The electrification of transport will increase energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and improve local air quality. The actual expansion of electric vehicles (EVs) will depend on several factors: the evolution of autonomy, the acquisition price, the charging process and infrastructure, etc. This paper provides a guide for simulating the accumulative load profile for EV charging on a national level. The importance of all the parameters and variables involved (deterministic or stochastic) is investigated. Detailed tables and references concerning the distribution of values and the composition of the EV fleet are provided. A multivariate probabilistic model is developed considering the EV classes, weekly and seasonal driving patterns, charging strategies, battery capacities, consumption per EV, etc., leading to an accurate estimation of aggregated EV charging demand. Finally, a net-metering scheme is proposed, in which a photovoltaic (PV) system of a certain size will be able to provide the annual energy needs of the first 10,000 EVs in the Greek market.