Exploratory temporal and spatial analysis of myocardial infarction hospitalizations in Calgary, Canada

Abstract

Spatial and temporal analyses are critical to understand the pattern of myocardial infarction (MI) hospitalizations over space and time, and to identify their underlying determinants. In this paper, we analyze MI hospitalizations in Calgary from 2004 to 2013, stratified by age and gender. First, a seasonal trend decomposition analyzes the seasonality; then a linear regression models the trend component. Moran’s I and hot spot analyses explore the spatial pattern. Though exploratory, results show that most age and gender groups feature a statistically significant decline over the 10 years, consistent with previous studies in Canada. Decline rates vary across ages and genders, with the slowest decline observed for younger males. Each gender exhibits a seasonal pattern with peaks in both winter and summer. Spatially, MI hot spots are identified in older communities, and in socioeconomically and environmentally disadvantaged communities. In the older communities, higher MI rates appear to be more highly associated with demographics. Conversely, worse air quality appears to be locally associated with higher MI incidence in younger age groups. The study helps identify areas of concern, where MI hot spots are identified for younger age groups, suggesting the need for localized public health policies to target local risk factors.