Climate change and perennial crop production: Evidence of yield impact and adaptation in California

Abstract

Perennial crops are economically important. They contribute to food security, providing essential nutrients that are often lacking in annual crops, and provide additional environmental benefits compared with annual crops. Despite their importance, empirical research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation on perennial crops remains limited. We model the phenological characteristics of major perennial crops in California and take adaptation into consideration to estimate the effects of temperature and precipitation on yields in both the short run and long run. Our findings indicate that weather impacts vary across the four phenological phases—dormancy, bloom, fruit development, and fruit maturity. Specifically, warming during the dormancy phase reduces walnut yields and warming during the bloom phase reduces almond yields in both the short-run and long-run. These long-run negative impacts suggest that adaptation has not offset the adverse effects of winter warming on these crops. On the other hand, warming in the fruit maturity phase positively affects almond yields, especially in the long run, suggesting that adaptation has taken advantage of rising temperatures to increase almond yields. Our findings provide valuable insights for targeted adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of perennial crop production in the face of climate change.