Accounting for spatial autocorrelation in the 2004 presidential popular vote: A reassessment of the evidence

Abstract

Ordinary least squares econometric approaches to estimating election vote outcomes potentially ignore spatial dependence (or autocorrelation) in the data that may affect estimates of voting behavior. The presence of spatial autocorrelation in the data can yield biased or inconsistent point estimates when ordinary least squares is used inappropriately. Therefore, this paper puts forward a spatial econometric model to estimate the vote outcomes in the 2004 presidential election. We contribute to the literature in two ways. One, we extend the voting behavior literature by considering newly developed spatial specification tests to determine the proper econometric model. The results of two different spatial specification tests suggest that a spatial Durbin model provides a better fit to the data. Two, we offer a richer interpretation of the spatial effects, which differ from standard ordinary least squares estimates, of the county-level vote outcome for the 2004 presidential election.