Contributing Factors to the Emergence of Systemic Risks

Abstract

IRGC’s emerging-risks project explores the origins of emerging systemic risks, and, in ongoing work, is developing guidance for practitioners on how to improve their antici- pation of and response to these risks. This article describes the IRGC’s concept of “con- tributing factors” to risk emergence: gener- ic factors that can affect the likelihood that a new risk will emerge, or the severity of its consequences. We explore here the factors that are particularly pertinent to systemic risks, because they derive largely from inter- actions and interdependencies, and relate to the properties of complex systems. We also emphasise the importance of taking a sys- tems perspective and of understanding traits common to complex systems.