A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach

Abstract

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis. In this study, we employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze the spread of EVD during the early stages of an outbreak, with an emphasis on inherent risks. We developed a model that considers healthcare workers and unreported cases, and assessed the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) using actual data. Our results indicate that the implementation of NPIs led to a decrease in the transmission rate and infectious period by 30% and 40% respectively, following the declaration of the outbreak. We also investigated the risks associated with delayed outbreak recognition. Our simulations suggest that, when accounting for NPIs and recognition delays, prompt detection could have resulted in a similar outbreak scale, with approximately 50% of the baseline NPIs effect. Finally, we discussed the potential effects of a vaccination strategy as a follow-up measure after the outbreak declaration. Our findings suggest that a vaccination strategy can reduce both the burden of NPIs and the scale of the outbreak.