Protecting Critical Infrastructure by Identifying Pathways of Exposure to Risk

Abstract

Increasingly, our critical infrastructure is managed and controlled by computers and the information networks that connect them. Cyber-terrorists and other malicious actors un- derstand the economic and social impact that a successful attack on these systems could have. While it is imperative that we defend against such attacks, it is equally imperative that we realize how best to react to them. This article presents the strongest-path method of analyzing all potential pathways of exposure to risk – no matter how indirect or circuit- ous they may be – in a network model of infrastructure and operations. The method makes direct use of expert knowledge about entities and dependency relationships without the need for any simulation or any other models. By using path analysis in a directed graph model of critical infrastructure, planners can model and assess the effects of a potential at- tack and develop resilient responses.