Using artificial neural network with prey predator algorithm for prediction of the COVID-19: The case of Brazil and Mexico

Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic worldwide has led to investigations in various aspects, including the estimation of expected cases. As it helps in identifying the need to deal with cases caused by the pandemic. In this study, we have used artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the number of cases of COVID-19 in Brazil and Mexico in the upcoming days. Prey predator algorithm (PPA), as a type of metaheuristic algorithm, is used to train the models. The proposed ANN models’ performance has been analyzed by the root mean squared error (RMSE) function and correlation coefficient (R). It is demonstrated that the ANN models have the highest performance in predicting the number of infections (active cases), recoveries, and deaths in Brazil and Mexico. The simulation results of the ANN models show very well predicted values. Percentages of the ANN’s prediction errors with metaheuristic algorithms are significantly lower than traditional monolithic neural networks. The study shows the expected numbers of infections, recoveries, and deaths that Brazil and Mexico will reach daily at the beginning of 2021.