Method for estimating the future annual mass of decommissioned wind turbine blade material in Denmark

Abstract

A model of the evolution of the onshore wind turbine blade mass installed in Denmark is proposed described by a Weibull distribution, and the age of the blades is estimated from decommissioning data to (Formula presented.) = 29 years when half of the blade mass of an installation year has been decommissioned. This is considerably longer than the 20 year design lifetime of onshore turbines, which is often assumed to be an estimate of the End-of-Life of turbine blades. Thus, blade waste predictions using the simple assumption may predict that installed blade masses are entering recycling processes about 9 years sooner that what is observed in Denmark. The blade mass for decommissioning in Denmark is estimated to peak at 2000 and 5000 ton/year in 2028 and 2045 using the Weibull model.