An analytic network process based risk assessment model for PPP hydropower investments

Abstract

The number of public-private partnership (PPP) projects has gone up especially in developing countries. The risk assessment of PPP projects is essential in ensuring project success. The objective of this study is to develop an Analytic Network Process (ANP) based risk assessment model for hydropower investments, and a tool to facilitate quantification of risk ratings based on this model. The results show that the three most important risk factors that affect the overall risk rating of a PPP hydropower investment are legal risks, contractor/subcontractor risks, and operator risks. In addition, the three most important risk clusters were identified as stakeholders, government requirements, and resources, whereas market was the least important cluster. The tool that measures the risk rating of a PPP of hydropower project was tested on ten real cases, and satisfactory results were obtained in terms of its predictive capability. The contributions of this research include (1) identification of the risk factors and clusters of factors associated with PPP hydropower investments; (2) determination of the priority of each risk factor and cluster; (3) development a tool that guides the investors through the risk assessment of PPP hydropower investments.