Prediction of Epidemic Transmission Path and Risk Management Method in Urban Subway

Abstract

With the development of COVID-19, the epidemic prevention requirements of city subway system have become stricter. This study studies the transmission path of epidemic disease in city subway system. Using FLUENT software and AnyLogic software, the simulation models of subway platform ventilation structure and crowd behavior mode in subway system are constructed, respectively, and SEIR (vulnerable exposed affected recovered) is used as the general infection model of epidemic disease. According to the actual situation, the parameters such as shoulder width, flow, and moving speed of crowd are determined, and the simulation analysis of epidemic disease transmission in subway system is carried out. The analysis results show that the transmission speed of the disease in the subway will increase with the enhancement of the transmission capacity of the disease and the increase of the contact rate. When the disease transmission capacity is 0.14, the number of latent persons reaches the peak at 14.115 time units, which is 1374, and the number of patients reaches the peak at 28.541 time units, which is 1925. According to the simulation results, the simulation analysis results show that with the enhancement of disease transmission ability and the increase of exposure rate, the maximum number of latent and sick people in the subway environment will increase. The corresponding suggestions on risk management and control of infectious disease transmission in subway are put forward. The research results can provide a useful reference for the epidemic prevention management of urban subway transportation system in China.