Should we reconsider how to assess eutrophication?

Abstract

Eutrophication in marine waters is traditionally assessed by checking if nutrients, algal biomass and oxygen are below/above a given threshold. However, increased biomass, nutrient concentrations and oxygen demand do not lead to undesirable environmental effects if the flow of carbon/energy from primary producers toward high trophic levels is consistently preserved. Consequently, traditional indicators might provide a misleading assessment of the eutrophication risk. To avoid this, we propose to evaluate eutrophication by using a new index based on plankton trophic fluxes instead of biogeochemical concentrations. A preliminary, model-based, assessment suggests that this approach might give a substantially different picture of the eutrophication status of our seas, with potential consequences on marine ecosystem management. Given the difficulties to measure trophic fluxes in the field, the use of numerical simulations is recommended although the uncertainty associated with biogeochemical models inevitably affects the reliability of the index. However, given the effort currently in place to develop refined numerical tools describing the marine environment (Ocean Digital Twins), a reliable, model-based, eutrophication index could be operational in the near future.