Die Zukunft der Landnutzung in Deutschland – Darstellung eines methodischen Frameworks

Abstract

The research project CC-LandStraD analyses interactions between land use and climate change. It therefore contributes to the challenges of climate change and the availability of scarce land resources. Within the project, land use scenarios are developed for Germany until the year 2030. The focus of this study is on the development of settlement and transport area. The approach applies the simulation model Land Use Scanner that integrates and combines different types of data. This includes statistical information on the socio-economic development as well as numerous spatial data sets like current land use, physical properties or spatial planning regulations. The paper introduces the different data sets, describes the modeling approach and demonstrates how the various data sets are used in the simulation model Land Use Scanner to calculate a spatial land use scenario for Germany in 2030. The model therefore integrates data sets of different spatial, temporal and thematic resolutions and consistently merges the information of different scales. The results of the model show that despite demographic change some regions still face high pressure of urban density in Germany.