Design and validation of a predictive model for determining the risk of developing fibromyalgia

Abstract

Objective Fibromyalgia is a prevalent disease of unknown aetiology and is difficult to diagnose. Despite the availability of the American College of Rheumatology criteria for diagnosis, it continues to be a challenge in the field of primary health care in terms of identifying individuals with susceptibility to developing the disease. The aim of this study is to design and validate a predictive model of fibromyalgia in subjects with a history of chronic pain. Methods This multicentre observational retrospective cohort study was performed on patients aged >18 years, who visited four primary health centres between 2017 and 2020, with a diagnosis of fibromyalgia or arthritis. The Bootstrapping resampling method was used for the validation of the model. Results A total of 198 subjects with fibromyalgia (93 with osteoarthritis, 20 with other types of arthritis, 4 with rheumatoid arthritis) and 120 without fibromyalgia (116 with osteoarthritis, 23 with other types of arthritis, 7 with rheumatoid arthritis) participated in the study. The predictive factors of the final model were self-reported age at onset of symptoms, first-line family history of neurological diseases, exposure to levels of stress, history of post-traumatic acute emotional stress, and personal history of chronic widespread pain prior to diagnosis, comorbidity, and pharmacological prescription during the year of diagnostic confirmation. The predictive capacity adjusted by Bootstrapping was 0.972 (95% CI: 0.955-0.986). Conclusion The proposed model showed an excellent predictive capacity. The risk calculator designed from the predictive model allows health professionals to have a useful tool to identify subjects at risk of developing fibromyalgia.