Stochastic Simulation of Flow Rate and Power Consumption Considering the Uncertainty of Pipeline Cracking Rate and Time-Dependent Topology of a Natural Gas Transmission Network

Abstract

Various gas pipeline networks used for the transit of energy sources are some of the most important infrastructures. However, carrying gas from one point to another is not the only concern when planning the construction of a new network or expanding an already existing one. The reliability and environmental impact of the system are crucial when evaluating the network and risks posed by potential gas leaks, fires, explosions, etc. Even though everyone admits that reliability is a key aspect of any system, its constraints will still be most likely neglected in the assessment of the pipeline project. How much energy is wasted by pushing an additional amount of gas through the pipeline network, which will eventually gush out of the pipeline because of one crack or another? Moreover, if this additional power or fuel consumption and related environmental impact are significant, how could it be reduced? In this paper, an approach is introduced for the simulation and quantification of how much more power would be required if the pipelines are regarded as unreliable (i.e., by leaking, rupturing, or even exploding). By employing stochastic simulations and time-dependent topology (topology determined by the value of a variable representing time) of the pipeline network as a case study for the selected representative gas transmission network, the amount of additional power consumption in gas compressor stations due to uncertain cracking and the leaking rate was evaluated. Although the analysis of power consumption was performed for a hypothetical network, the estimates of the cracking rates, detection effectiveness, and leaking rates used were as close to the real cases as possible.