Research on the Comprehensive Evaluation of the Higher Education System Based on FCE and ARMA Models

Abstract

A Higher education system is closely related to a country's development. Governments need to make appropriate adjustments to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of higher education. To measure and evaluate the development status of the national higher education system and propose a set of policies, the following work has been done in this paper: First, this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system based on the AHP-FCE model. The healthy development of education in significant countries was compared horizontally and vertically. The results of weighted scores were used to determine the Japanese higher education system as the research object. Secondly, this paper uses factor analysis and principal component analysis to evaluate the level of sustainable development of higher education, detecting development barriers that migrate from the current to the future. This paper proposes a healthy and sustainable development policy blueprint from four aspects. Finally, this article uses the ARMA time series model to predict the development trend of Japanese higher education in the next 30 years and formulates a timetable for corresponding implementation arrangements. In addition, this paper quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness of the policies we propose and their impact on reality and provides references for other countries in the world.