GIS-based seismic risk assessment and zonation of the Shaki-Zagatala region: a multi-parameter analysis for sustainable infrastructure planning

Abstract

The Shaki-Zagatala economic region of Azerbaijan presents a complex case study for seismic risk assessment, situated within the seismically active Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. This research conducts a comprehensive multi-parameter analysis integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing technologies, and historical seismological data to develop an advanced framework for earthquake risk assessment and zonation. The study systematically examines the region’s intricate geological structure, encompassing the Tufan anticlinorium, Zagatala-Govdagh synclinorium, Vandam anticlinorium, and the super-imposed Alazan-Aghrichay depression, demonstrating how these formations fundamentally influence seismic activity patterns and risk distribution. Historical seismic data analysis covering the period from 1250 to 2012 reveals significant variations in earthquake intensity, with particularly notable events reaching a magnitude of 7 in the Zagatala and Oghuz regions. The research identifies critical seismic source zones at depths ranging from 2 to 22 km, characterized by seismogenic faults saturated with igneous rocks, significantly impacting the region’s seismic behavior. Through sophisticated GIS-based analysis and remote sensing interpretation, the study establishes a detailed risk zonation system, categorizing areas into high (5.15 thousand km²), medium (3.46 thousand km²), and low (0.23 thousand km²) risk zones. High-risk zones notably correspond to densely populated residential areas and crucial transportation infrastructure, while medium-risk zones predominantly encompass mountainous and foothill regions with lower population densities. An advanced remote sensing analysis reveals that fault depths extend to approximately 20 km, with attenuation coefficients indicating a high likelihood of significant infrastructure damage from seismic events exceeding a magnitude of 5. This detailed assessment provides essential insights for urban planning, infrastructure development, and disaster preparedness strategies, particularly in areas where seismic activity has historically been most intense. The study’s innovative methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating cutting-edge geospatial technologies with traditional seismological approaches, establishing a robust and comprehensive seismic risk assessment framework. These findings have substantial implications for regional development policies and disaster mitigation strategies in seismically active regions, offering a replicable and adaptable framework for similar studies in other geographic areas. The research makes a significant contribution to the understanding of seismic risk patterns in the Caucasus region and provides valuable insights for sustainable infrastructure planning and development in earthquake-prone areas worldwide.