Mitigating virus spread through dynamic control of community-based social interactions for infection rate and cost

Abstract

The emergence of a new virus in a community may cause significant overload on health services and may spread out to other communities quickly. Social distancing may help reduce the infection rate within a community and prevent the spread of the virus to other communities. However, social distancing comes at a cost; how to strike a good balance between reduction in infection rate and cost of social distancing may be a challenging problem. In this paper, this problem is formulated as a bi-objective optimization problem. Assuming that in a community-based society interaction links have different capacities, the problem is how to determine link capacity to achieve a good trade-off between infection rate and the costs of social distancing restrictions. A standard epidemic model, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, is extended to model the spread of a virus in the communities. Two methods are proposed to determine dynamically the extent of contact restriction during a virus outbreak. These methods are evaluated using two synthetic networks; the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methods in decreasing both infection rate and social distancing cost compared to naive methods.