Risk-Based Assessment of the Reliability Level for Extreme Limit States in IEC 61400-1

Abstract

The annual target reliability level for structural components is given as β = 3.3 in the main design standard for wind turbines IEC 61400-1 ed. 4. However, since the same safety factors are used for a range of load cases and limit states, deviations in the obtained reliability level can be expected, and it should be considered how to handle this in relation to the development of the IEC TS 61400-9 on probabilistic design measures. In this paper, structural reliability analyses were performed for components designed using safety factors for a range of extreme load cases, and by using the correlation between limit states for different years, the development of the reliability level over time was calculated. A relative risk-based assessment was applied to assess the optimal target reliability level and safety factors. The risk-based assessment explicitly includes the uncertainties, benefits, and costs and can motivate differentiation of the annual reliability level between load cases. Annual reliability indices were found to be in the range of 2.9–3.4, and although this includes values below the target of 3.3, it was also found that the optimal reliability indices were in the same range. The variation in reliability level can be motivated since the optimal target reliability is found to be lower than the current target for load cases with high correlation, as this causes the lifetime reliability level to be comparable to that of other extreme load cases with less correlation.