Research note: “should we stay or should we go? exploring the outcomes of great power retrenchment”

Abstract

Within foreign policy and academic circles in the United States and other western countries, retrenchment has become an increasingly controversial topic. In spite of the increased attention, there have been few empirical studies that rigorously examine the outcomes of great power retrenchment. In this paper, we seek to fill this gap by performing a quantitative analysis of great power retrenchment outcomes from 1870–2007. Counter to the retrenchment pessimists’ expectations, we find that retrenchment leads to relatively positive outcomes for declining states. States that choose to retrench experience shorter periods of economic decline and are less likely to be the target of predatory conflict initiation.