Development of a risk prediction score to identify high-risk groups for the critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in mid-December 2019 and has rapidly spread worldwide. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from patients with COVID-19 to construct a simple risk prediction score to be implemented in prehospital settings. Patients were classified into critical and non-critical groups based on disease severity during hospitalization. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors and develop a risk prediction score. A total of 234 patients were included in the study. The median age of the critical group was significantly older than that of the non-critical group (68.0 and 44.0 years, respectively), and the percentage of males in the critical group was higher than that in the non-critical group (90.2% and 60.6%, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that factors such as age ≥ 45 years, male sex, comorbidities such as hypertension and cancer, and having fever and dyspnea on admission were independently associated with the critical COVID-19 infection. No critical events were noted in patients with a total risk factor score of ≤ 2. Contrastingly, patients with a total risk factor score ≥ 4 were more likely to have critical COVID-19 infection. This risk prediction score may be useful in identifying critical COVID-19 infections.