Evaluating the Contribution of Land-Atmosphere Coupling to Heat Extremes in CMIP5 Models

Abstract

Land-atmosphere coupling can amplify heat extremes under declining soil moisture. Here we evaluate this coupling in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models using flux tower observations over Europe and North America. We compared heat extremes (2.5% of the hottest days of the year) and the evaporative fraction (EF; a measure of land surface dryness) on the day the heat extremes occurred. We found a negative relationship between the magnitude of heat extremes and EF in both models and observations in transitional regions, with the hottest temperatures occurring during the driest days, with a similar but less certain relationship in dry regions. Surprisingly, many models also showed an amplification of heat extremes by low EF in wet regions, a finding not supported by observations. Many models may therefore overamplify heat extremes over wet regions by overestimating the strength of land-atmosphere coupling, with consequences for future projections of heat extremes.