Predictive effect of intellectual capital on business innovation in Ecuadorian SMEs

Abstract

In a productive environment characterized by increasing demands for sustainability, traceability, and differentiation, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a central role in economic development. This study aims to evaluate the predictive effect of human, structural, and relational capital on product, process, marketing, and organizational innovation in Ecuadorian SMEs. The analysis is based on a structured survey administered to 395 SME managers and owners from the manufacturing, commercial, and service sectors located in the provinces of Tungurahua, Cotopaxi, and Chimborazo (Ecuador) during July and August 2025. Data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), incorporating bootstrapping with 5,000 resamples and external validation through a holdout approach (80% training and 20% validation). The results reveal that all hypothesized relationships are positive and statistically significant (p < 0.001), with standardized path coefficients ranging from β = 0.20 to β = 0.66. Structural capital has the strongest effect on process innovation (β = 0.60), while relational capital has the strongest effect on organizational innovation (β = 0.54). The model explains a substantial proportion of variance in innovation outcomes, with R2 values of 0.47 for product innovation, 0.51 for process innovation, 0.52 for marketing innovation, and 0.44 for organizational innovation. Predictive validation confirms the model’s accuracy, yielding low prediction errors (RMSE = 0.20–0.23; MAE = 0.16–0.18). These findings provide updated empirical evidence on the strategic role of intellectual capital in enhancing innovation performance in Latin American SMEs and highlight the relevance of intangible resources.