A reanalysis of the 1944-53 atlantic hurricane seasons-the first decade of aircraft reconnaissance

Abstract

The main historical archive of all tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes in the North At- lantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico from 1851 to the present is known as the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT), which is the fundamental database for meteorological, engineering, and financial studies of these cyclones. Previous work has demonstrated that a reanalysis of HURDAT is necessary because it contains many random errors and systematic biases. The Atlantic Hurricane Rean- alysis Project is an ongoing effort to correct the errors in HURDAT and to make HURDAT as accurate a database as possible with utilization of all available data. For this study, HURDAT is reanalyzed for the period 1944-53, the first decade of the ''aircraft reconnaissance era.'' The track and intensity of each existing tropical cyclone in HURDAT are reassessed, and previously unrecognized tropical cyclones are discovered, analyzed, and recommended to the HURDAT Best Track Change Committee for in- clusion into HURDAT (existing tropical cyclones may be removed from the database as well if analyses indicate evidence that no tropical storm existed). Changes to the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and U.S. landfalling hurricanes are recommended for most years of the decade. Estimates of uncertainty in the reanalyzed database for the decade are also provided. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.