Ecological Niche Modelling of the Genus Anatololacerta under Past, Historical and Future Bioclimatic Conditions

Abstract

Anatolia has played an important role in the speciation of many species. Global climatic changes affect the distribution of many reptiles in different ways, including their range expansion or habitat loss. In this study, we focused on the genus Anatololacerta which inhabits Anatolia and some Greek islands. In total, 150 literature records and 20 items of observation data were analysed with the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt) for the last glacial maximum (LGM), as well as historical (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100; RCP 4.5) bioclimatic conditions. According to our model, the distribution ranges in the future conditions for A. danfordi, A. finikensis and A. ibrahimi were more extensive than for the historical conditions. However, A. anatolica and A. pelasgiana may experience a potential habitat loss in the future. Although physical barriers were obstacles in the LGM and historical records, these barriers may be overcome after the climatic changes taking place in the near future.