Risk factors for voluntary early old-age retirement in middle-aged workers: A meta-analysis

Abstract

Objective This meta-analysis aimed to identify sociodemographic, lifestyle, work-related and health risk factors for voluntary early old-age retirement among middle-aged workers. Methods Searches were conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, PsycInfo, and Scopus from their inception until February 2025. Observational longitudinal studies involving workers aged 40–64 years were included. Two reviewers evaluated the methodological quality of the studies. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed, and heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed. Results From 13 899 publications, 23 longitudinal studies (N=2 270 430 participants) were included. The following factors were associated with an increased risk of early old-age retirement: age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.35, 95% CI (confidence interval) 1.12–1.63 per year increase], overweight or obesity (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03–1.17), physically demanding work (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05–1.59), low job control (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.11–1.17), low influence at work (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02–1.19), low organizational justice (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.10–1.46), lack of skills and knowledge development (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.63–2.85), suboptimal self-rated general health (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12–1.34), chronic physical conditions (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.17), and depressive symptoms (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.12–1.61). Conversely, a lower risk was found among individuals who were unmarried, separated, or widowed (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.60–0.91). Conclusions This meta-analysis underscores the impact of overweight, physical and psychosocial work factors, lacking skills and knowledge development and health conditions on early old-age retirement risk among middle-aged workers. Targeted interventions to encourage healthy lifestyles, foster a supportive work environment, and promote mental health may help to reduce early old-age retirement risk.