Hydropower and climate change concerning to the implementation of the First National Determined Contribution in Ecuador

Abstract

Global warming threatens the world's water supplies, posing a significant threat to hydropower generation, however the continuing increase in energy demand due to world population growth and socio-economic development requires this renewable source. The manuscript aims to analyze the future tendency of climate change in hydropower development in five emblematic plants (Coca Codo Sinclair, Manduriacu, Minas San Francisco, Toachi Pilatón, and Delsintagua) concerning the implementation of National Determined Contribution. The article's methodology is exploratory with information on hydropower development in Ecuador since 20 projects are already working, and it presents two qualitative and quantitative approaches. To project the scenarios, we use data according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change related to three evolution lines A1, B1, and B2. The results show that climate change constitutes one of the most significant challenges in Ecuador faces in meeting the National Determined Contribution because hydropower energy has an inefficiency of 15.8% in the last 20 years. The scenarios show a reduction A1 up to 1909 MW to 2050, in the medium scenario B1 to 2041 MW, and in the conservative scenario B2 to 2132 MW from the total capacity for the emblematic hydropower projects thinker in 2275 MW initially.