Efectos del cambio climático sobre la producción de aceituna en Yarada, Región Tacna

Abstract

This paper quantifies the effects of climate change on the production of olive in Yarada, Tacna-Peru region, from yield estimates of the production of olive through cointegration analysis and model of vector error correction (VEC), using 1993-2012 data information. Econometric Model results indicate climatic variables such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and soil humidity significantly affect the performance of the olive harvest, the goodness of fit or validity of the model is explained by more than 70%. At present, the average maximum temperature has not reached the threshold of break (24.07 °C), so that increases in temperature improves the performance of the crop, the opposite happens with the minimum temperature level, this has surpassed the threshold (16.24 °C), the minimum temperature falls has an adverse impact on the productivity of olive. By 2030 it will experience a slight performance drops olive production of 4.94% in the low and 6.42% forecast in the high level.