Resolving Inconsistencies in Extreme Precipitation-Temperature Sensitivities

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are intensifying with increasing temperatures. However, observed extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities have been found to vary significantly across the globe. Here we show that negative sensitivities found in previous studies are the result of limited consideration of within-day temperature variations due to precipitation. We find that short-duration extreme precipitation can be better described by subdaily atmospheric conditions before the start of storm events, resulting in positive sensitivities with increased consistency with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation across a wide range of climatic regions. Contrary to previous studies that advocate that dew point temperature drives precipitation, dry-bulb temperature is found to be a sufficient descriptor of precipitation variability. We argue that analysis methods for estimating extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities should account for the strong and prolonged cooling effect of intense precipitation, as well as for the intermittent nature of precipitation.