PEMODELAN MIXED GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION DENGAN ADAPTIVE BANDWIDTH UNTUK ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP (Studi Kasus : Angka Harapan Hidup di Jawa Tengah)

Abstract

Life expectancy at birth (AHH) is an estimate of the years a person will take from birth. AHH is used as an indicator of public health and welfare. These two indicators are of concern to the government in relation to human development. It is hoped that the AHH value will continue to increase so that the quality of human development will also increase. Modeling of the factors that influence AHH needs to be done so that efforts to increase AHH become more effective.The AHH value for Central Java (Central Java) in 2020 is 74.37. Factors thought to influence AHH in Central Java are the percentage of poor people (X1), the percentage of households with proper sanitation (X2), the percentage of children under five who are fully immunized (X3) and the open unemployment rate (X4). The assumption of homoscedasticity in AHH modeling in Central Java using linear regression was not fulfilled, meaning that there was spatial heterogeneity between districts/cities, so the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method was used. The weighting function used is the Bisquare and Tricube kernels with adaptive bandwidth. The GWR method will encounter problems if not all independent variables are local, so the Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) method is used. The results of the GWR analysis for the two weighting functions are that the X1 variable is not local, so the MGWR method is used. The results of MGWR modeling for the two weighting functions are that local variables and global variables have a significant effect. The best model is the MGWR model with Kernel Tricube weighting because it has the smallest AICc value. Keyword : AHH, GWR, MGWR, Adaptive Kernel Bisquare, Adaptive Kernel Tricube, AICc