Voto econômico retrospectivo e sofisticação política na eleição presidencial de 2002

Abstract

This article discusses economic voting from the perspective of unequal political sophistication among voters. Several studies show evidence that Brazilian voters are able to connect their perceptions about the economy to their vote choice and to their evaluations of the president. This evidence is often used to support the claim that Brazilian mass electorates are capable of making reasonable choices by basing their judgments on the economy instead of paying too much attention to parties, issues, or ideological labels. This article analyzes panel survey data from Caxias do Sul and Juiz de Fora in 2002 in order to test whether the effect of retrospective economic evaluations on vote choice depends on voters' levels of political sophistication. The results show that retrospective economic evaluations tend to be quite unstable over time, and that their impact is limited to the vote choice of more sophisticated voters. Finally, the article discusses the implications of the findings and the importance of taking into account the inequality of political sophistication in understanding the dynamics of elections and public opinion in Brazil.