Technical note: Literature based approach to estimate future snow

Abstract

The seasonal snow cover in the European Alps is increasingly threatened by rising temperatures due to climate change. Still, downscaled climate projections are lacking for many regions. To address this gap, we developed a literature-based approach for projecting future snow depths, that is applicable to all locations where historical snow depth data is available. We harmonized heterogeneous literature on future snow depth and snow water equivalent by translating emission scenarios to corresponding temperature scenarios and standardizing seasonal periods. Then, we parameterized localized reduction curves based on elevation, temperature scenarios and local climatologies, such as mean snow cover length and mean maximum snow depth. This method was applied to four measurement stations in Switzerland under a +2°C temperature scenario, revealing significant declines in snow depth and season length, especially at lower elevations. Validation against published data shows that the approach captures key trends in snow loss, despite the simplification of climate dynamics. This resource-efficient method provides a practical tool for estimating climate change related snow depth declines in snow dominated regions, which are lacking highly resolved climate projections, and can support decision-makers in developing adaptation strategies for climate-related challenges.