Hydrological Assessment Using the SWAT Model in the Jundiaí River Basin, Brazil: Calibration, Model Performance, and Land Use Change Impact Analysis

Abstract

Flow regulation and water quality maintenance are considered ecosystem services, as they provide environmental benefits with a measurable economic value to society. Distributed or semi-distributed hydrological models can help identify where land use decisions yield the greatest economic and environmental returns related to water resources. For these reasons, this study integrated simulations performed with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model under varying land use conditions, aiming to balance potential benefits with the loss of ecosystem services. Among the tested parameters, those associated with surface runoff showed the highest sensitivity in simulating streamflow for the Jundiaí River Basin. Based on the statistical indicators R2, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS), and Percent Bias (PBIAS), the SWAT model demonstrated a reliable performance in replicating observed streamflows on a monthly scale, even with limited spatially distributed input data. Scenario 2, which involved converting 15% of pasture/agricultural land into forest, yielded the most favorable hydrological outcomes by increasing soil water infiltration and aquifer recharge while reducing surface runoff and sediment yield. These findings highlight the value of reforestation and land use planning as effective strategies for improving watershed hydrological performance and ensuring long-term water sustainability.