Assessment of the compound impact of sea level rise, land subsidence and storm surge under climate change in ShangHai

Abstract

Global climate change-induced sea level rise has emerged as a critical environmental challenge for coastal cities in the 21st century. Shanghai, China’s economic, financial, and shipping hub, faces significantly amplified inundation risks in its coastal areas due to the compounding effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges. This study constructs a multi-case simulation framework using the sixth assessment report of intergovernmental panel on climate change sea level projection data, land subsidence monitoring records, and historical storm surge data to evaluate the impacts of three cases on future inundation risks: sea level rise alone (case1), sea level rise combined with land subsidence (case 2), and sea level rise coupled with land subsidence and storm surges (case 3). Leveraging Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model time-series modeling, Geographic Information System spatial analysis, and numerical simulations, the study predicts relative sea level rise and inundation extents for 2050, 2070, and 2100. Results indicate that Shanghai’s relative sea level rise rate far exceeds the global average, with land subsidence and storm surges synergistically amplifying disaster risks in low-lying coastal zones. Under case 1, the projected inundation area reaches 361.32 km2 by 2100. Case 2 increases this area to 460.97 km2, while case 3 shows a dramatic escalation to 1,331.91 km2 by 2100—a surge of 870.94 km2 compared to case 2—highlighting the dominant role of storm surges in extreme weather events. Spatial analysis identifies Chongming District, Pudong New Area, and Fengxian District as high-risk zones, with Chongming Island being the most severely affected (54.5% inundation by 2100). This study elucidates the compound impact mechanisms of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges in Shanghai, providing a scientific foundation for coastal disaster mitigation and adaptive urban management. Recommendations include enhancing coastal flood defenses, optimizing land-use planning, improving extreme weather early-warning systems, and fostering international collaboration and technological innovation to bolster urban resilience against climate risks.