Decision support systems

Abstract

Making decisions concerning complex systems (e.g., the management of organizational operations, industrial processes, or investment portfolios; the command and control of military units; the control of nuclear power plants) often strains our cognitive capabilities. Even though individual interactions among a system’s variables may be well understood, predicting how the system will react to an external manipulation such as a policy decision is often difficult. What will be, for example the effect of introducing the third shift on a factory floor? One might expect that this will increase the plant’s output by roughly 50%. Factors such as additional wages, machine weardown, maintenance breaks, raw material usage, supply logistics, and future demand also need to be considered, however, because they will all affect the total financial outcome of this decision. Many variables are involved in complex and often subtle interdependencies, and predicting the total outcome may be daunting.