A novel framework for parameter and state estimation of multicellular systems using Gaussian mixture approximations

Abstract

Multicellular systems play an important role in many biotechnological processes. Typically, these exhibit cell-to-cell variability, which has to be monitored closely for process control and optimization. However, some properties may not be measurable due to technical and financial restrictions. To improve the monitoring, model-based online estimators can be designed for their reconstruction. The multicellular dynamics is accounted for in the framework of population balance models (PBMs). These models are based on single cell kinetics, and each cellular state translates directly into an additional dimension of the obtained partial differential equations. As multicellular dynamics often require detailed single cell models and feature a high number of cellular components, the resulting population balance equations are often high-dimensional. Therefore, established state estimation concepts for PBMs based on discrete grids are not recommended due to the large computational effort. In this contribution a novel approach is proposed, which is based on the approximation of the underlying number density functions as the weighted sum of Gaussian distributions. Thus, the distribution is described by the characteristic properties of the individual Gaussians, like the mean and covariance. Thereby, the complex infinite dimensional estimation problem can be reduced to a finite dimension. The characteristic properties are estimated in a recursive approach. The method is evaluated for two academic benchmark examples, and the results indicate its potential for model-based online reconstruction for multicellular systems.