GODAE oceanview inter-comparison for the Australian region

Abstract

This paper compares the performance of short-range operational ocean forecasts, using ‘observational space’ metrics developed under GODAE OceanView (GOV). Best estimates (behind the real-time analysis) and forecasts are inter-compared for the Australian region (0-50S, 90-180E) for 2013. Systems considered include those developed in Australia, France, Canada, United Kingdom and USA. Each system is compared to observations of along-track sea level anomaly, sea surface temperature observations from surface drifters and sub-surface Argo profiles of temperature and salinity. The UK operational system generally has the smallest errors for sea surface temperature and sea level anomaly for the Australian region. However, the French systems outperform others in sub-surface temperature and salinity for the region. Of the two products provided by the Australian centre, an ensemble based approach is found to perform better than the deterministic system, having higher skill and lower root mean square errors. Some of the ‘better’ results of systems can be attributed in part to the lack of independence of the reference observations; however the study does demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of GOV global ocean inter-comparison efforts for regional applications.