Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Restricting Mechanisms of Agricultural Supply Chain Resilience in the Yangtze River Basin from a Gradient Perspective

Abstract

This study examines the spatio-temporal evolution and restricting mechanisms of agricultural supply chain resilience in the Yangtze River Basin from a gradient perspective. An evaluation index system encompassing the dimensions of the supply side, demand side, circulation side, and support side was developed. The Entropy-Weighted TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation, and obstacle degree model were comprehensively applied to measure and dynamically analyze supply chain resilience across 11 provinces from 2013 to 2023. The findings reveal distinct spatio-temporal evolution patterns: while the overall resilience shows an upward trend, significant gradient disparities exist, with downstream areas exhibiting markedly higher resilience than the mid- and upstream regions. Regarding the restricting mechanisms, the circulation and support sides exhibit higher levels of obstacles, representing key constraints to resilience enhancement. Among these, express delivery volume, freight turnover, and local R&D personnel full-time equivalents are the core obstacle factors affecting resilience. Based on these findings, this study proposes targeted recommendations, including optimizing rural last-mile logistics, upgrading inter-provincial freight hubs, improving rail–water intermodal transport, and strengthening cold-chain infrastructure, as well as implementing differentiated regional strategies and establishing cross-regional coordination mechanisms. These recommendations aim to provide decision-making guidance for enhancing the risk-response capabilities of agricultural supply chains in the Yangtze River Basin and to promote balanced regional development.