Identification and Prioritization of Sources of Uncertainty in External Hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Project Update

Abstract

The value and importance of external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for nuclear facilities have been increasingly recognized over the past decade. However, the state of knowledge/practice in external hazard PRA has not kept pace with this evolution, particularly for temporally and spatial dynamic hazards such as floods. As a result, research is needed to build upon the existing state of knowledge to develop a technically sound, risk-informed strategy for identifying, characterizing, and prioritizing drivers of hazard uncertainty in external hazard PRA. This presentation summarizes the ongoing progress of a multi-year research project seeking to develop a structured process for identifying, evaluating, categorizing, and communicating the impact of uncertainties on XHPRAs. The project explores uncertainties from the perspective of hazard characterization, the physical response of the plant, and human performance. This paper (and associated presentation) provides an update on project activities and seeks feedback from the PRA community that may benefit from project insights.