Asymmetric spatial effects of unemployment on health outcomes

Abstract

This paper develops an asymmetric spatial Durbin model to examine how unemployment affects mortality, using multiple spatial weight matrices capturing different dimensions of neighbourliness. Using US state-level data from 1980 to 2020, we find that mortality responds more strongly to economic downturns than upturns. Our results reveal significant spillover effects, particularly when neighbourliness is measured via interstate mobility flows. Rolling-window analysis indicates that this asymmetry has intensified over time. Our study reveals a nuanced interplay between unemployment shocks and spatial spillovers, highlighting how local economic conditions impact neighbouring states, with significant implications for public health and labour policy.