Forecasting the garlic production in Bangladesh by ARIMA Model

Abstract

Among the species grown in Bangladesh, garlic is undoubtedly one of the important crops cultivated during cool season. It has been considered as a rich source of carbohydrates, proteins and phosphorus. It also helps eliminating waste materials and dangerous free radicals from the human body. The production of garlic is insufficient in Bangladesh. The main purpose of this study is to identify the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that could be used to forecast the production of garlic in Bangladesh. This study considered the published secondary data of yearly garlic production in Bangladesh over the period 1971-2013. The best selected Box-Jenkin's ARIMA model for forecasting the garlic productions in Bangladesh is ARIMA (0, 2, 1). From the comparison between the original series and forecasted series shows the same manner indicating fitted model are statistically well behaved to forecast the garlic productions in Bangladesh i.e., the models forecast well during and beyond the estimation period to a satisfactory level.