A short-term output power prediction model of wind power based on deep learning of grouped time series

Abstract

The output power prediction of wind power plants is an important guarantee to improve the utilization rate of wind energy and reduce wind curtailment. However, due to the strong randomness of wind energy, the ultra-short-term prediction accuracy of wind power output is poor. In view of the problem above, a prediction model based on deep learning of grouped time series (LW-CLSTM) was proposed in this paper. Based on this model, the authors attempted to explore a prediction method of wind power output. For this, first the multivariate data of wind power was fused, cleaned, dimension-reduced, and standardized, and the time period characteristics of the output power itself were extracted. Afterwards, it proposes a time sliding window (TSW) algorithm, and constructs a neural network input data set. Then a deep neural network prediction model combining the Convolutional Neutral Network (CNN) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) was established, and the regression evaluation criteria for output power forecast accuracy in wind power production were designed, to compare the proposed model with four other prediction models. Finally, the experiments on the TensorFlow platform using real data show that this model has better prediction accuracy than the other four models, reaching a prediction accuracy rate of 92.5%, which verified the effectiveness of this prediction method.